The Emmy Awards are just around the corner, and the competition is heating up. With the campaigns concluded and the votes cast, let’s take a closer look at the frontrunners in key categories.
The campaigns are over. The votes are in. Now we just wait.
With Emmy balloting officially closed at 10 p.m. Wednesday, Gold Derby has the first look at where the race stands in the key categories of series, directing, and writing.
Based on our updated predictions, The Studio has an 84 percent chance to win Best Comedy Series. Apple TV+’s show about a fictitious movie company led by Matt Remick (Seth Rogen) received a record 23 Emmy nominations, the most ever for a first-year comedy. Last year’s series winner, HBO Max’s Hacks, is in the No. 2 position for a fourth season that was also Hollywood-focused, as Deborah Vance (Jean Smart) achieved the dream of having her own late-night talk show.
Best Comedy Series
1. Only Murders in the Building
2. What We Do in the Shadows
3. The Studio
4. Hacks
5. The Rehearsal
The Studio and Hacks are expected to split the trophies for Best Comedy Directing and Best Comedy Writing. Rogen and Evan Goldberg are out front (96 percent) for co-directing The Studio‘s second episode, “The Oner,” which told its story in a single take. And Hacks showrunners Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky are in the lead (79 percent) for writing the penultimate episode, “A Slippery Slope,” where Deborah shockingly quits her show. Aniello, Downs, and Statsky previously won this writing award in 2021 and 2024.
Best Comedy Directing
1. The Rehearsal
2. Mid-Century Modern
3. Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman
Best Comedy Writing
1. The Rehearsal
2. What We Do in the Shadows
3. Abbott Elementary
Switching genres, Severance is favored to win Best Drama Series (72 percent), Ben Stiller is favored for Best Drama Directing for “Cold Harbor” (82 percent), and Dan Erickson is favored for Best Drama Writing for “Cold Harbor” (84 percent). Apple TV+’s sci-fi workplace series resonated with Emmy voters, receiving a stunning 27 nominations, more than any other program this year. (Its first season in 2022 nabbed just 14 bids and won for Best Main Title Design and Best Music Composition.) Severance has led wire-to-wire throughout the Emmy season.
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Best Drama Series
“Cold Harbor” was the Season 2 finale that featured several standout sequences, including the “innie” and “outie” duel between Adam Scott‘s multiple personalities and the epic Choreography and Merriment marching band scene.
Severance‘s closest competition in these three races is HBO Max medical drama The Pitt, but its nominated episode titles for directing (“7:00 A.M.” and “6:00 P.M.”) and writing (“7:00 A.M.” and “2:00 P.M.”) could easily confuse voters and cause a vote-split.
Best Drama Directing
1. The White Lotus
2. Slow Horses
Best Drama Writing
1. The White Lotus
2. Andor
Adolescence, Netflix’s psychological crime drama that focused on an accused 13-year-old murderer (Owen Cooper), is an overwhelming frontrunner to win Best Limited Series (93 percent), Best Movie/Limited Directing (94 percent), and Best Movie/Limited Writing (94 percent). Specific episodes were not submitted since all four episodes were directed by Philip Barantini and written by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham.
With each episode filmed in a single take, the series prides itself on “saving lives,” as it brings to the forefront conversations about online bullying and toxic masculinity.
HBO’s comic book adaptation of The Penguin is the default runner-up in those three Emmy categories, but there’s a big gap between first and second place.
Best Limited Series
1. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Best Movie/Limited Directing
1. The Penguin
Best Movie/Limited Writing
Come back soon for a breakdown of the various acting races.
Gold Derby’s Emmy predictions are based on the combined forecasts of 2,000 people (and counting), including experts from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
You have until Sept. 14 to make or update your own Emmy picks. As always, join the discussion in our TV forums.
“Is anyone making any last-minute changes? I just switched from “The Pitt” to “Severance” for Best Drama Series … but I could be convinced to switch back lol!”
