In the competitive world of cinema, film festivals play a crucial role in shaping the Oscars. This article explores which festivals have the most significant impact on Best Picture winners over the last decade.
Which Film Festival Holds the Oscar Bragging Rights?
Following the recent announcement that several major awards contenders such as Jay Kelly, The Smashing Machine, Bugonia, and After the Hunt are set to premiere at various film festivals in the coming months, it’s the perfect time to take a closer look at which of these prestigious festivals most often leads to an Oscar.
A Decade of Best Picture Winners
Looking back at the past 10 years of Best Picture winners at the Oscars, it’s clear that the world’s leading film festivals — Cannes, Venice, Toronto, and Telluride — play a vital role in shaping the awards race. But which one truly leads to the top prize? Surprisingly, the answer appears to be … a tie.
In 2015, Spotlight premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado. The Tom McCarthy-directed journalism drama, starring Mark Ruffalo, Michael Keaton, and Rachel McAdams, which also played in Venice and Toronto, went on to win Best Picture at the 2016 Oscars.
The following year, Barry Jenkins won the Oscar for Moonlight, which did not formally screen at Cannes, Venice, TIFF, or Sundance, an exception to the festival-to-Oscar pipeline, though it did quietly debut at Telluride as a “sneak preview” and also played Toronto.
Then came 2017, when Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water debuted at the Venice Film Festival. The romantic fantasy won the festival’s top prize, the Golden Lion, and got a lengthy standing ovation. It went on to claim the Academy Award for Best Picture, boosting Venice’s prestige as a launchpad for awards contenders.
In 2018, the spotlight shifted back to Toronto. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book won TIFF’s coveted People’s Choice Award, long seen as an Oscar harbinger, and rode that momentum to win Best Picture at the 2019 ceremony.
The year of 2019 was Cannes’ turn. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite made history as the first South Korean film to win the Palme d’Or — and later, the first non-English-language film to win Best Picture at the Oscars. The victory solidified Cannes’ renewed influence in the Oscar race.
In the pandemic-stricken 2020 season, Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland pulled off a rare festival double premiere. The film debuted simultaneously at both Venice and TIFF, winning the Golden Lion and the People’s Choice Award — and ultimately, Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
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But in 2021, it was Sundance that made its mark with CODA. Siân Heder’s heartwarming drama about a child of deaf parents premiered at the virtual edition of Sundance and became the first film from the festival to win Best Picture, bolstering Sundance’s reputation for discovering indie gems with awards potential. After the screening in Utah, the film sparked an intense bidding war with Variety writing at the time, “Distributors seemed to agree, and there was a widespread belief that CODA has awards potential, with some insiders even predicting a date with the Oscars.” They were right!
The following year brought an even more unexpected turn. Everything Everywhere All at Once, directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, had its world premiere at South by Southwest. The multiverse adventure became a box office hit and awards juggernaut, culminating in a Best Picture win. The Best Picture win marked a first for a film debuting at the Austin fest.
In 2023, Christopher Nolan bucked the festival trend entirely. His biographical epic Oppenheimer, starring Cillian Murphy, premiered in Paris in July without a formal film festival berth. Despite skipping the circuit, Oppenheimer dominated awards season, winning Best Picture and six other Oscars.
Then, in 2024, Cannes struck again. Sean Baker’s Anora, a provocative dark comedy about a Brooklyn sex worker who marries into Russian oligarchy, won the Palme d’Or. It later triumphed at the 2025 Oscars, edging out Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, which had taken the Golden Lion at Venice.
The Conclusion
Clearly, there’s no single path to Best Picture. Venice, Toronto, and Cannes are tied with two clear wins each. While Telluride’s influence is notable, often serving as an unofficial launchpad for contenders, Sundance and SXSW have each delivered breakout winners. And even a film like Oppenheimer, which avoided the festival circuit entirely, can dominate the Oscars with the right mix of critical acclaim, cultural impact, and momentum.
In the end, the road to a Best Picture win appears to be as varied and unpredictable as the films themselves.
