As awards season approaches, ‘Jay Kelly’ emerges as a significant contender, particularly for Adam Sandler, who may finally secure his Oscar nod.
‘Jay Kelly’ Could Be Adam Sandler’s Ticket to the Oscars
If there’s any movie this year catering directly to awards voters who appreciate films about awards voters, it’s Noah Baumbach‘s Jay Kelly. The Netflix film premiered at the Venice Film Festival last week, and with a star-studded cast and Oscar-nominated talent behind the camera, it has been thrust into the awards conversation.
But will voters take the bait? Here’s Gold Derby’s quick take on Jay Kelly‘s Oscar prospects as the film begins its rollout.
Best Picture
Since 2020, Baumbach has become a regular contender for Best Picture. He first achieved this with Marriage Story, a film that garnered him his second writing nomination. He then co-wrote another Best Picture nominee with Barbie in 2024.
While Jay Kelly isn’t receiving the ecstatic reviews from Venice that those previous two films did, it appears well-liked enough to sneak into a 10-film slate. Additionally, the Netflix aspect makes the movie more accessible than the average screener for Academy members.
Best Original Screenplay
Although Baumbach faces long odds for a Best Director nomination (currently ranked No. 11 in our polls), he should be in contention for a screenplay nomination alongside co-writer Emily Mortimer. Their script currently holds fourth place, and given Baumbach’s history in this category (three prior nominations for The Squid and the Whale, Marriage Story, and Barbie), it is poised to be a strong contender throughout the season.
Best Actor
George Clooney portraying a George Clooney type isn’t exactly a stretch, but he embodies one of the rarest resources on Earth: bona fide movie stars. Even if it’s not a transformative role, Clooney is a four-time acting nominee (one of which he won), and he’s comfortably within his element here.
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The biggest challenge he faces is a crowded field. Clooney is currently just outside the top five in Gold Derby’s nomination predictions.
Best Supporting Actor
Much of what applies to Clooney also pertains to his co-star Adam Sandler, but what the Sandman has going for him is the narrative that he’s overdue. The snubbing for Uncut Gems remains one of the most glaring oversights in recent acting nominations history, and Gold Derby’s predictions reflect that. Sandler is currently leading the Best Supporting Actor nominations rankings.
Best Supporting Actress
Despite winning an Oscar for her last collaboration with Baumbach, Marriage Story, Laura Dern isn’t experiencing the same success as her co-stars in Gold Derby’s rankings. She currently sits just outside the top 10.
