Dwayne Johnson’s portrayal of Mark Kerr in ‘The Smashing Machine’ has sparked Oscar buzz. Will he secure a nomination this awards season?
‘The Smashing Machine’ Instant Oscar Predictions: Dwayne Johnson to Shine This Awards Season
Dwayne Johnson has portrayed a superhero in Black Adam, an archaeologist in Jumanji, and a demigod in Moana. Is he about to add “Oscar nominee” to his impressive résumé?
On October 3, the actor and former professional wrestler known as the Rock brings the story of mixed martial artist and UFC fighter Mark Kerr to the big screen in A24’s The Smashing Machine. Johnson stars alongside Oscar-nominated actress Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) in a film written and directed by indie sensation Benny Safdie.
Kerr rose to prominence during the early days of the Ultimate Fighting Championship while privately battling a serious drug addiction. To authentically portray Kerr, Johnson underwent a dramatic physical transformation, supported by two-time Academy Award-winning makeup artist Kazu Hiro (Darkest Hour, Bombshell). The performance is already generating significant awards buzz, especially following the film’s debut at the Venice Film Festival. Let’s delve into The Smashing Machine‘s instant Oscar predictions.
Best Picture
The Smashing Machine currently ranks within the top 20 of Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Picture, with a 5 percent chance of being nominated. Films about wrestlers have received Oscar nominations in the past, but never in the top category. The Wrestler (2008) earned acting bids for Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei, while Foxcatcher (2014) garnered five nominations, including for Steve Carell and Mark Ruffalo. In recent years, The Iron Claw (2023) starring Zac Efron and Unstoppable (2024) featuring Jharrel Jerome were both shut out at the Oscars, receiving no nominations. The Smashing Machine now aims to make history for wrestling films.
Directing and Screenplay
Benny Safdie was recently a contender for directing (with his brother, Josh Safdie) and editing Uncut Gems, earning recognition at the Critics Choice Awards but missing the Oscars. Now he’s back in the conversation for his solo directorial debut on The Smashing Machine, which he also penned. Safdie is currently positioned at 20th for Best Director according to Gold Derby data.
See More ...
Best Actor
Johnson has surged up the Gold Derby Best Actor chart in recent weeks, now ranking fifth for a nomination. Taking on a physically demanding role in a sports film has helped other leading men secure nominations, including Rourke, Will Smith (Ali), Sylvester Stallone (Rocky), Denzel Washington (The Hurricane), and Robert De Niro (Raging Bull), who won. Johnson’s character, the mixed martial artist nicknamed the Smashing Machine, fits right in with that list of former Best Actor Oscar nominees.
A24 has not yet confirmed whether Blunt will campaign in lead or supporting for her role as Dawn Staples, the ex-wife of Mark Kerr. A final decision regarding her category placement will be made later. The British actress currently ranks 10th for Best Actress and 50th for Best Supporting Actress, but it’s still early in the Oscar season, and the odds are likely to shift as the film gains wider visibility.
Nominations for the 2026 Oscars will be announced on January 22.
