As the 2025 Emmy nominations unfold, an intriguing battle is brewing between the front-runners for Best Drama Series. While ‘Severance’ has dominated the predictions, experts are now leaning towards ‘The Pitt’ as a potential dark horse.
The Great Emmy Best Drama Series Divide: Experts Predict ‘The Pitt’ Over Front-Runner ‘Severance’
With just one week since the 2025 Emmy nominations were announced, clear trends are emerging in the Gold Derby predictions. In the marquee races, Adolescence is the clear favorite for Best Limited Series, while The Studio has taken the lead over Hacks for Best Comedy Series. However, there remains a significant gap between front-runner Severance and The Pitt in the Best Drama Series category.
A closer examination of the data reveals a striking divide between overall voters and Gold Derby experts, which include film critics, journalists, and historians. This discrepancy does not bode well for the Lumon industrial complex.
Currently, Severance leads the combined predictions with 67 percent, compared to The Pitt‘s 23 percent.
Combined Predictions
However, when we analyze predictions from Gold Derby’s experts at major media outlets, the numbers are almost exactly reversed.
Experts’ Predictions
Among the experts, six out of nine are forecasting a victory for the first-year HBO Max medical drama, The Pitt.
The Pitt received 13 Emmy nominations in its debut season, including two for directing, two for writing, and nominations for Noah Wyle in lead, Katherine LaNasa in supporting, and Shawn Hatosy in guest roles. The accessible hospital series, reminiscent of past dramas, gained popularity each week through positive word-of-mouth and a compelling narrative about filming in Los Angeles with local actors.
According to expert predictions, The Pitt boasts a 66.7 percent chance of winning the Emmy. While this is not a guarantee, it is certainly worth monitoring, especially as another key race, casting, trends in The Pitt‘s favor. Historically, the winners of Best Drama Series and Best Drama Casting have aligned seven times in the past decade, giving The Pitt a significant advantage.
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Despite the experts backing The Pitt, the Gold Derby editorial team and the majority of Gold Derby users are supporting Severance.
Editors’ Predictions
Five out of eight editors believe Severance will maintain its lead to the Emmys with its buzzworthy second season, which expanded the world of Lumon Industries and introduced new divisions, including the goat-breeding Mammalians Nurturable and the toe-tapping Choreography and Merriment. Severance leads this year’s nominations with 27, including two for directing, one for writing, and nominations for Adam Scott and Britt Lower in lead roles, as well as supporting roles for Zach Cherry, Tramell Tillman, John Turturro, and Patricia Arquette.
Severance aims to improve upon its previous season’s accolades, having won Best Main Title Design and Best Music Composition at the 2022 Emmys.
Users’ Predictions
As of publication, over 1,300 users have submitted their predictions for the Emmys, with 67.3 percent favoring Severance as the frontrunner, compared to 22.6 percent for The Pitt, 4.5 percent for The Last of Us, 3.7 percent for The White Lotus, and 1.5 percent for Andor. Other nominees for Best Drama Series include Slow Horses, Paradise, and The Diplomat.
For those keeping track, experts have outperformed or matched the editors and users in predicting Emmy winners for the past nine years. If you’re looking to win your office pool, history suggests you follow the experts’ choice of The Pitt.
